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Journal paper
篇名(中)油電價格雙漲對台灣農畜產業的衝擊模擬分析—能源消費調查資料之應用
篇名(英)A policy simulation of the impact of increases in both gasoline and electricity prices on the agricultural sector — An application of energy consumption survey data
論文屬性研究論文
作者姓名(中)許玉雪
作者姓名(英)Esher Hsu
頁碼033-070
Abstract油電雙漲所引發的問題受到農業當局的重視,為評估油電雙漲對 國內農畜業部門所造成的衝擊,本研究應用農委會的台灣農畜產品生 產成本調查報告資料及能源局之農業部門能源消費調查資料,分析國 內農畜業部門的能源投入及消費狀況,並透過台灣農業政策模擬系統 (TWAPS) 模擬油電雙漲及因應的油電補貼措施對國內農畜業之影響。 油電雙漲對國內農畜產業的影響模擬結果顯示油電價格雙漲對花卉、 乳牛等使用能源較多的產業有較明顯的負面影響。整體而言,油電價 格上漲對農畜業價格面的正面影響大於生產面的負面影響,而大部分 的農畜產值及所得都將因產地價格提高而上升,消費者價格的上漲將 遠大於農場價格的上漲。此外,政府的能源補助措施確有其正面的影 響效果,多少具有降低生產面衝擊及穩定物價的效果,但政策效果不 是很明顯。分析結果亦顯示農畜部門受能源價格上漲的影響將隨著溫室栽培方式的發展而增加。
摘要(英)The issues caused by increases in both gasoline and electricity prices have come to agricultural authorities’ attention. This study aims to analyze the impact of the increases in both gasoline and electricity prices on the agricultural sector in Taiwan, and to see the policy effect of energy subsidies as well. Energy input data based on a Council of Agricultural (COA) report and energy consumption data based on a survey conducted by the Bureau of Energy (BOE) are used to explore the energy input cost of the agricultural sector (including the crop sector and livestock sector), and are further used for policy simulation with Taiwan’s agricultural policy simulation system (TWAPS). The simulation results show that increases in both gasoline and electricity prices would have negative impact on industries with high energy input, such as the flower and dairy cow industries. Energy subsidy measures might slightly reduce the impact from gasoline and electricity price increases and further stabilize consumer prices, but the policy effect would not be significant. Moreover, study results also indicate that the impact from increasing energy prices on the agricultural sector would be increased by greater development of greenhouse farming.
Keyword油電雙漲、台灣農業政策模擬系統(TWAPS)、能源消費、政策模擬、能源價格
關鍵字(英)increases in both gasoline and electricity prices; Taiwan agricultural policy simulation system (TWAPS); energy consumption; policy simulation; energy price
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